CES unveils the future of TV
The Consumer Electronics Show was staged in Las Vegas last week. ARTHUR GOLDSTUCK highlights the highlight.
Author
- Arthur GoldstuckOne would expect a week at the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas to focus the mind on ever smaller gadgets. Instead, it was the big numbers that impressed the most.
The single most visible trend is the explosion of new technology for TV monitors, from three perspectives:
First, the size and quality of the screens themselves, with Samsung demonstrating the first 108” LCD screen, and several other manufacturers demonstrating screens ranging from 70” to 102”. It’s not the size that dazzles, but rather the quality. Even at a more conventional-sized level, the 40” screens have come into their own: at that size, Sony, HP, LG, Samsung, Hitachi, Toshiba and many others are all showing near-perfect images from digital sources like DVD and Hi-Definition TV. Tube TV is dead, non-flat panel is dead. Plasma screen is still in there, but does not compete with the new advances in LCD.
And then there is the new screen technology, OLED (Organic LED), which is close to photo-perfect imagery as I have seen on screen, on a near-paper thin monitor. Sony demonstrated small prototypes which are not yet for sale, but we can see where the future is headed: thinner than ever, sharper than ever.
Second, the price points and the resultant explosion in the market: a wide-screen plasma monitor that cost more than $15000 five years ago costs less than $1500 today. LCD screens are dropping in price at a similar pace. In 2006, such price falls (33% average) resulted in the fastest growing consumer electronics market in the USA in 20 years
In 2007, the quality increases mentioned above, combined with ongoing price decreases of a similar pace, will result in the market going even crazier. And that will start to make its impact felt in South Africa, with higher-end consumers moving away from traditional “curved” screens and from those relying on tubes. By 2009, it is likely that “old-fashioned” TV sets will sell in smaller quantities than those with LCD and equivalent screens.
Third, Hi Definition TV, or HDTV: this is driven from two ends: broadcast, i.e. TV, and stored media, i.e. DVD and its successors like Blu-Ray and HD DVD. The HDTV standard refers to 1080 lines of “vertical resolution” (our PAL system uses 625 lines) and a wide-screen ratio of 16:9, so clearly it is best experienced where the broadcast signal is designed to take advantage of those specifications.
For that reason we will see “HD-ready” TV sets sold in South Africa in 2007, rather than actual HDTV. Even in the USA, only 18 or so channels out of hundreds are broadcast in HD format. Yet, it is expected to become the dominant standard among American households during 2007. Part of the reason is the superior quality it gives when viewing DVDs, and there too we are seeing dramatic technological advances, if with poor business models.
Two new DVD-type optical storage formats, namely Blu-ray and HD DVD, are competing to be the accepted standard. Both offer a DVD-style disc, but Blue-Ray has 25Gb capacity (50Gb if both sides are used), while HD DVD has 15Gb capacity (30Gb if both sides used). They offer either longer movie-time or far higher quality movie image than the maximum 8.5Gb of standard DVDs.
The format wars are fast becoming irrelevant, with LG Electronics launching a dual player, and Warner Bros Home Entertainment launching a combined standard called Total Hi-Def, or THD. The dual-player plays both formats, while a THD disk will contain the same movie in both formats, at the same price. The combination of HDTV and increased capacity disks means that the home entertainment environment is being dramatically enhanced.
Combine that, again, with better, bigger and cheaper screens, and the living room of the near future could look like science fiction dreams of the recent past.
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